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Aug. 24th, 2011
Life in The Desert
Aug. 24th, 2011 05:55 am~It is presently 64° and 37% humidity. Le-Le said it hit 106° yesterday afternoon while I was napping. This is normal summer weather around these parts.
"He's not the first Young Firebrand to become a cranky altakaka. Remember most of the Neo-Cons started off as Trotskites. It seems a special affliction of Jewish intellectuals, their heritage steeped in Talmudic thinking. Such can produce genius as if from an assemble line, yet its relentless parsing can lead to endless conflict. Golda Meir once said, "If the Arabs really wanted to destroy us, they'd leave us alone." I suspect Mr. Mamet has internally painted himself into a corner and it has driven him mad." ..comment on Say it isn't so, Mamet?
Could the Black Death re-emerge?
Aug. 24th, 2011 05:57 pmPrecinct
‘Biology of Plagues’ published by Cambridge University Press.
For the whole of the 20th Century it was universally believed that bubonic plague (a disease of rodents) was responsible for the plagues that ravaged Europe for over 300 years after the Black Death appeared in 1347.
This is completely contrary to the experience of people of that time who recognised that it was a lethal, infectious disease, spread person-to-person, and they quickly determined an effective quarantine period. This medical view persisted until 1900.
Now, two researchers in the School of Biological Sciences have shown by applying modern concepts of epidemiology, molecular biology and computer modelling to the detailed analysis of historical records, that the causative agent was not a bacterium but a virus with unusual epidemiological characteristics.
This piece of interdisciplinary detective work was undertaken by Dr Susan Scott and Professor Christopher Duncan, and it enabled them to establish the plagues of Europe within a new geographical, historical and demographic framework.
The process by which they reached their conclusions is described in the book ‘Biology of Plagues’ published by Cambridge University Press. The book also contains a warning that it could happen again.
Several authors have drawn attention to the potential dangers of lethal infectious diseases that suddenly emerge, apparently from nowhere, and threaten our civilisation. Examples are HIV, Ebola and the influenza pandemic of 1917-19.
The Black Death arrived in Sicily in 1347 and during the next three years it spread remorselessly northwards, reaching Norway and crossing to England and from there to Scotland, Ireland and probably Iceland and Greenland. The mortality of the pandemic was truly terrible: at least 25 million people (25-75% of the population) are estimated to have died. It presaged the age of plagues during which France was continually ravaged, with several outbreaks in widely separated towns in almost every year. Infected people travelled to England and other parts of continental Europe, bringing irregular and devastating epidemics. The age of plagues in Europe continued for over 300 years until it suddenly and mysteriously (and thankfully) disappeared in 1670.
The Black Death was immediately accepted as an infectious disease, spread person-to-person and the physicians and health authorities of northern Italy led the world in establishing suitable health measures. By the late 14th Century they had already identified a 40-day quarantine period which was strictly maintained throughout Europe for 300 years. A community knew that it was safe if there had been no plague deaths for 40 days. Henry VIII decreed that this time should be reduced, but this decision was speedily reversed when it proved to be completely ineffective.
So, the plague was universally accepted for 650 years as an infectious disease, spread person-to-person until the biology of bubonic plague was brilliantly elucidated at the end of the 19th Century. Bubonic plague is a bacterial disease of rodents with a complex biology involving resistant and non-resistant species and is spread by their fleas. It is endemic in a variety of rodents across vast areas of Asia today. Occasionally it spreads to humans via peridomestic rats causing a potentially lethal disease which is usually treatable with modern medicine. It has been universally believed, contrary to previous opinion, that bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis) was also the infectious agent of the plagues that beset Europe from 1347 to 1670.
In ‘Biology of Plagues’ Dr Scott and Professor Duncan detail the compelling evidence which shows that this view is incorrect. For example, quarantine measures are completely ineffective against bubonic plague and the Brown Rat did not arrive in Europe until 50 years after the plague had disappeared. Indeed, the authors conclude that Yersinia pestis was the most unlikely candidate for the causative agent of this disease.
It was decreed in Elizabethan times that the parish burial registers should designate those who died of the plague and so medical historians have invaluable and unique records of the plagues in England over some 100 years. Scott and Duncan have reconstructed the families in communities where the plague struck and have shown how the infection spread through them. The most interesting fact to emerge with complete consistency is that the time from infection to inevitable death was very long, some 37-38 days. This was made up of a latent period of 10-12 days, which was followed by an infectious period (with no overt symptoms) of 20-22 days, followed by a 5-day period showing symptoms before death. So, a victim had 32 days to travel by foot, horseback or sea, carrying a lethal infection that neither he nor anyone else knew about. The finding confirms the 40-day quarantine period and has been used in computer modelling to explain why a ‘typical’ plague epidemic in England lasted 8-9 months. The authors name it haemorrhagic plague to distinguish it clearly from bubonic plague.
The HIV virus today enters human white blood cells via a molecular entry port on the cell surface termed the CCR5 gene product. A mutation of this gene confers protection against HIV and occurs at high frequency in Europe, but not in Asia or sub-Saharan Africa.
Molecular biologists have determined that this mutation probably appeared about the time of the Black Death and its frequency was then forced up by the pandemic and by the never-ending series of plague epidemics in Europe that followed. A rising proportion of the population slowly became resistant to haemorrhagic plagues in this way.
What then was the causative agent of haemorrhagic plague? After an examination of the symptoms (particularly the haemorrhagic red spots on the chest - (‘God’s tokens’) and the primitive autopsy reports of the dissolution of the internal organs, Scott and Duncan suggest that it may have been a form of filovirus, distantly related to Ebola.
Could haemorrhagic plague emerge again? If it did so, infectious individuals, apparently healthy and not showing any symptoms, would rapidly spread the disease throughout the world by modern transport because of the long incubation period. The mortality would be catastrophic.
‘Biology of Plagues’ published by Cambridge University Press.
For the whole of the 20th Century it was universally believed that bubonic plague (a disease of rodents) was responsible for the plagues that ravaged Europe for over 300 years after the Black Death appeared in 1347.
This is completely contrary to the experience of people of that time who recognised that it was a lethal, infectious disease, spread person-to-person, and they quickly determined an effective quarantine period. This medical view persisted until 1900.
Now, two researchers in the School of Biological Sciences have shown by applying modern concepts of epidemiology, molecular biology and computer modelling to the detailed analysis of historical records, that the causative agent was not a bacterium but a virus with unusual epidemiological characteristics.
This piece of interdisciplinary detective work was undertaken by Dr Susan Scott and Professor Christopher Duncan, and it enabled them to establish the plagues of Europe within a new geographical, historical and demographic framework.
The process by which they reached their conclusions is described in the book ‘Biology of Plagues’ published by Cambridge University Press. The book also contains a warning that it could happen again.
Several authors have drawn attention to the potential dangers of lethal infectious diseases that suddenly emerge, apparently from nowhere, and threaten our civilisation. Examples are HIV, Ebola and the influenza pandemic of 1917-19.
The Black Death arrived in Sicily in 1347 and during the next three years it spread remorselessly northwards, reaching Norway and crossing to England and from there to Scotland, Ireland and probably Iceland and Greenland. The mortality of the pandemic was truly terrible: at least 25 million people (25-75% of the population) are estimated to have died. It presaged the age of plagues during which France was continually ravaged, with several outbreaks in widely separated towns in almost every year. Infected people travelled to England and other parts of continental Europe, bringing irregular and devastating epidemics. The age of plagues in Europe continued for over 300 years until it suddenly and mysteriously (and thankfully) disappeared in 1670.
The Black Death was immediately accepted as an infectious disease, spread person-to-person and the physicians and health authorities of northern Italy led the world in establishing suitable health measures. By the late 14th Century they had already identified a 40-day quarantine period which was strictly maintained throughout Europe for 300 years. A community knew that it was safe if there had been no plague deaths for 40 days. Henry VIII decreed that this time should be reduced, but this decision was speedily reversed when it proved to be completely ineffective.
So, the plague was universally accepted for 650 years as an infectious disease, spread person-to-person until the biology of bubonic plague was brilliantly elucidated at the end of the 19th Century. Bubonic plague is a bacterial disease of rodents with a complex biology involving resistant and non-resistant species and is spread by their fleas. It is endemic in a variety of rodents across vast areas of Asia today. Occasionally it spreads to humans via peridomestic rats causing a potentially lethal disease which is usually treatable with modern medicine. It has been universally believed, contrary to previous opinion, that bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis) was also the infectious agent of the plagues that beset Europe from 1347 to 1670.
In ‘Biology of Plagues’ Dr Scott and Professor Duncan detail the compelling evidence which shows that this view is incorrect. For example, quarantine measures are completely ineffective against bubonic plague and the Brown Rat did not arrive in Europe until 50 years after the plague had disappeared. Indeed, the authors conclude that Yersinia pestis was the most unlikely candidate for the causative agent of this disease.
It was decreed in Elizabethan times that the parish burial registers should designate those who died of the plague and so medical historians have invaluable and unique records of the plagues in England over some 100 years. Scott and Duncan have reconstructed the families in communities where the plague struck and have shown how the infection spread through them. The most interesting fact to emerge with complete consistency is that the time from infection to inevitable death was very long, some 37-38 days. This was made up of a latent period of 10-12 days, which was followed by an infectious period (with no overt symptoms) of 20-22 days, followed by a 5-day period showing symptoms before death. So, a victim had 32 days to travel by foot, horseback or sea, carrying a lethal infection that neither he nor anyone else knew about. The finding confirms the 40-day quarantine period and has been used in computer modelling to explain why a ‘typical’ plague epidemic in England lasted 8-9 months. The authors name it haemorrhagic plague to distinguish it clearly from bubonic plague.
The HIV virus today enters human white blood cells via a molecular entry port on the cell surface termed the CCR5 gene product. A mutation of this gene confers protection against HIV and occurs at high frequency in Europe, but not in Asia or sub-Saharan Africa.
Molecular biologists have determined that this mutation probably appeared about the time of the Black Death and its frequency was then forced up by the pandemic and by the never-ending series of plague epidemics in Europe that followed. A rising proportion of the population slowly became resistant to haemorrhagic plagues in this way.
What then was the causative agent of haemorrhagic plague? After an examination of the symptoms (particularly the haemorrhagic red spots on the chest - (‘God’s tokens’) and the primitive autopsy reports of the dissolution of the internal organs, Scott and Duncan suggest that it may have been a form of filovirus, distantly related to Ebola.
Could haemorrhagic plague emerge again? If it did so, infectious individuals, apparently healthy and not showing any symptoms, would rapidly spread the disease throughout the world by modern transport because of the long incubation period. The mortality would be catastrophic.
