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~Up until last Friday, it was a pretty good bet that the GOP was going to take control of The House and Senate again this November. But after the whole SCOTUS Roe v Wade bombshell, that's not looking so certain now. The GOP leadership is doing its best to 'focus on the leaker' and not on the substance of the leak, but I have no doubt they're well aware of what a likely disaster this is for them.
"Whomever the Democratic nominee is next year, he or she will be the next president.
That seems a bold statement, but both the numbers and quality of the GOP's candidates actually make it a fairly safe call.
The Numbers: 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win. Democrats have taken 18 states and the District of Columbia in every presidential election since 1992. That's 242 Electoral Votes right out of the gate, which is a serious head start.
The GOP Candidates: The extreme nature of the GOP's core voter base makes it impossible for the party to field a nationally acceptable candidate. Don't take my word for that. Just look at who they've run and who's out there now.
2016: Given that the only real Democratic threat to Hillary is Elizabeth Warren, I'm calling it for Hillary right now. Warren has not only refused to run – a wise move on her part IMHO – she has more or less given 'her campaign' over to Hillary. And not only is Hillary running with that, her entire campaign looks far smarter this time around.
Black Swans: Certainly, something could happen that knocks Hillary out of the race, but whatever Democrat takes her place, the opening line still applies."
That seems a bold statement, but both the numbers and quality of the GOP's candidates actually make it a fairly safe call.
The Numbers: 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win. Democrats have taken 18 states and the District of Columbia in every presidential election since 1992. That's 242 Electoral Votes right out of the gate, which is a serious head start.
The GOP Candidates: The extreme nature of the GOP's core voter base makes it impossible for the party to field a nationally acceptable candidate. Don't take my word for that. Just look at who they've run and who's out there now.
2016: Given that the only real Democratic threat to Hillary is Elizabeth Warren, I'm calling it for Hillary right now. Warren has not only refused to run – a wise move on her part IMHO – she has more or less given 'her campaign' over to Hillary. And not only is Hillary running with that, her entire campaign looks far smarter this time around.
Black Swans: Certainly, something could happen that knocks Hillary out of the race, but whatever Democrat takes her place, the opening line still applies."
